IPCC Hones Its Language on Climate Change

The Athabasca Glacier, a part of the Columbia Icefields in Alberta, Canada, is receding on an average of 16 feet per year.

The Athabasca Glacier, a part of the Columbia Icefields in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada, has receded 0.93 miles (1.5 km) over the last 125 years.

Yesterday the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest Synthesis Report (SYR5) – a summary of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) on the state of knowledge on climate change. The big news with the SYR5’s release is the change in language used within the report – words like “unequivocable” and “clear” now replace the earlier usage of “probable” and “likely” when describing global warming and the role that human activity has played in the temperature increase. Text from the SYR5 underscores this major language shift:

 “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”


“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history.”

The SYR5 summarizes IPCC’s three other major reports on various facets of climate change that were released in 2013-2014. These reports are all available from the IPCC website:

  • Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis;
  • Climate Change 2014 – Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerability; and
  • Climate Change 2014 – Mitigation of Climate Change.

The Carbon Brief 11/2/2014 blog gives a listing and good, brief descriptions of what else is noteworthy in the SYR5. Here’s a quick recap on their list:

  • Global warming continues unabated
  • Human influence on warming is clear
  • Ocean acidification, sea level rise, glacial ice decline
  • IPCC’s new carbon budget
  • Consequences of inaction – climate change impacts
  • Low carbon transition – costs and savngs

Dead Mud Encroaches On To Maine’s Shellfish Flats

“Dead mud” is not a geologic term that I had heard before. But it well describes a geologic event that may have catastrophic implications for coastal areas as oceans continue to acidify.

The Maine coastal areas are being particularly hard hit with dead mud:

The spread of “dead mud” among Maine’s shellfish flats could have disastrous implications for clammers, lobstermen, oyster farmers and others whose livelihoods depend on healthy coastal ecosystems.

Mark Green, an oyster grower and marine science professor at St. Joseph’s College in Standish, defines dead mud:

The darker muds and sulfur-rich muds don’t have any clams, and those are the flats that have lower pH levels. Places where historically there have been great harvests that supported clammers for decades, you now see water quality changes that are reflected in the mud.” The more acidic the water, the lower the pH.

In the following video, Prof. Mark Green further explains ocean acidification and how it affects marine life:
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Ocean Acidification and Climate Change

A news item caught my interest recently – a National Public Radio (NPR) news segment of 11/23/2012 on whether shellfish can adapt to increasingly acidic oceans (NPR shellfish link). Because UN Climate Talks opened in Doha, Qatar today, I thought it would be an appropriate time to talk about ocean acidification trends. As noted by Lauren Sommer during the NPR broadcast, “Scientists say oceans are becoming more acidic as they absorb the carbon dioxide added to the air through the burning of fossil fuels. That can be bad news for oysters, mussels and others animals that are key to the seafood industry and to the marine food web. Scientists are using the unique ocean conditions off the California coast to monitor developments”.

The first comment posted on the NPR web site page of the shellfish story tried to debunk ocean acidification. However, as noted in a second comment, data from several studies clearly show that ocean pH is decreasing. In fact, a study cited by both commentors is the Wootton, et.al., 2008 study (Wootton study link) of ocean pH which is based upon a multi-year data set. The authors of this article give a summary statement of “…our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems”.

Being a geologist, I like to look at the present oceanic decline in pH in a geologic context. One of the most interesting articles in this area that I’ve found is a 2012 paper by Honisch et. al. that was published in Science (Honisch study link). The authors of this paper, 21 ocean/climate geoscientists, examined the geologic record (these authors confined their study to only approximately the past 300 million years due to the presence of pelagic calcifiers similar to those living today that make the deep-sea carbonate buffer of the modern Earth system) for events that could be associated with ocean acidification, such as mass extinctions and evolutionary turnovers among marine calcifiers. They recognized eight geological events that could be similar to what is occurring today, but state, “…Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry—a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place”.

One of the better analog events identified by the Honisch study is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) which began about 56 million years ago. During the PETM, global temperature rose about 5 degrees Celsius – a temperature elevation that occurred within just a few thousand years. The increased temperature probably resulted from massive additions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere sourced initially by volcanic eruptions and later by destabilized methane hydrate deposits and other related events such as wide-spread forest fires and thawed permafrost. It took about 200,000 years for the earth’s systems to counteract this elevated temperature. Consequences of this climate change are wide-ranging and include occurrences such as the largest extinction among deep-sea benthic foraminifers of the past 75 million years, poleward shift of many animals and plants, redistribution of mammals over high-latitude land bridges, and organism adaptation such as smaller body size. However, to put the PETM’s massive greenhouse gas injection into the atmosphere into a context for the present day, Lee Kump, in a 2011 Scientific American article on the PETM (Kump paper link), suggests that the PETM greenhouse gas release “… was only 10 percent of the rate at which heat-trapping greenhouse gases are building up in the atmosphere today”.

As the 21 geoscience authors in the 2012 Honish study summarized, “…the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last ~300 My of Earth history, raising the possibility that we are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change”.

Let’s hope that there is huge progress made at the UN Climate Change talks.